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BTS Pro Series Season 9. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Army Geniusesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
PlayHard · 25 games
68%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Tims · 23 games
65%
Lion
Lion
Jaunuel · 20 games
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Unknown- · 17 games
59%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 17 games
53%
Mars
Marssignature
xiaoyu154 · 14 games
64%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
Skem · 14 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Enryu · 13 games
77%

Army Geniuses

Mirana
Mirana
Lym- · 13 games
38%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Lym- · 12 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
woMy · 9 games
0%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 9 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Lym- · 8 games
25%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
woMy · 7 games
29%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MamangDaya · 7 games
29%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Lym- · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
271 picks · 151 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
262 picks · 344 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
254 picks · 509 bans
55%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
248 picks · 385 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
230 picks · 329 bans
49%
Monkey King
Monkey King
226 picks · 475 bans
61%
Tiny
Tiny
222 picks · 296 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
220 picks · 231 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 19%
Hero pool strength64% Neon Esports
Head-to-head5 – 0
Model total66% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:28
Neon Esports 59%Army Geniuses 41%
The model gave 59% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 41:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPalos
53% · 20 games53% · 88 games
Terrorbladedb-
Terrorblade
Leshrac
LeshracMamangDaya
45% · 112 games47% · 187 games
PuckAzur4
Puck
Tidehunter
TidehunterEnryu
51% · 145 games44% · 45 games
Night StalkerwoMy
Night Stalker
Snapfire
SnapfireNARMAN
53% · 102 games42% · 11 games
DawnbreakerLym-
Dawnbreaker
55% · 48 games
UndyingVarizh
Undying
Game 2prediction correct31:11
Neon Esports 59%Army Geniuses 41%
The model gave 59% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 32:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetPalos
58% · 51 game52% · 34 games
Faceless Voiddb-
Faceless Void
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerEnryu
44% · 27 games46% · 120 games
LinaAzur4
Lina
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMamangDaya
52% · 125 games55% · 99 games
TidehunterwoMy
Tidehunter
Rubick
RubickNARMAN
48% · 115 games46% · 48 games
SnapfireLym-
Snapfire
42% · 17 games
SilencerVarizh
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 66%
Series resultNeon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2