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BTS Pro Series Season 9. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Execrationloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 17 games
76%
Lion
Lionsignature
Khezcute · 16 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Tims · 14 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 13 games
69%
Io
Iosignature
Skem · 12 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Khezcute · 12 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Palos · 11 games
73%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 11 games
55%

Execration

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 19 games
58%
Puck
Pucksignature
Bob · 16 games
63%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
RR · 14 games
71%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
RR · 13 games
69%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Tino- · 13 games
62%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Bob · 11 games
55%
Lina
Linasignature
Bob · 11 games
64%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
RR · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
273 picks · 151 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
261 picks · 343 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
252 picks · 511 bans
55%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
247 picks · 384 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
230 picks · 329 bans
49%
Monkey King
Monkey King
225 picks · 475 bans
62%
Tiny
Tiny
222 picks · 296 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
220 picks · 231 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 30%
Hero pool strength52% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head6 – 0
Model total73% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:12
BOOM Esports 60%Execration 40%
The model gave 60% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 32:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSkem
27% · 7 games54% · 164 games
LinaBob
Lina
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYopaj
45% · 99 games47% · 65 games
SpectreMarb
Spectre
Necrophos
NecrophosFbz
56% · 10 games54% · 60 games
BeastmasterTino-
Beastmaster
Mirana
MiranaTims
57% · 117 games43% · 41 game
UndyingRR
Undying
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMushi
50% · 97 games
Game 2prediction missed23:39
BOOM Esports 63%Execration 37%
The model gave 63% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 40:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingSkem
52% · 162 games54% · 160 games
LinaBob
Lina
Tidehunter
TidehunterFbz
44% · 200 games45% · 138 games
UrsaMarb
Ursa
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritYopaj
55% · 112 games50% · 349 games
MarsTino-
Mars
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeMushi
40% · 173 games57% · 80 games
BaneRR
Bane
Io
IoTims
51% · 80 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 73%
Accuracy by game1 of 2