BTS Pro Series Season 9. Америка · BO2
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hokoriloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thunder Awaken
Marsoften banned
Frank · 13 games
Phoenix
Mjz · 9 games
Earth Spirit
MoOz · 7 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 6 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Mjz · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Leostyle · 4 games
Centaur Warrunner
Frank · 4 games
Elder Titan
MoOz · 4 games
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
286 picks · 160 bans
Mars
269 picks · 365 bans
Lina
261 picks · 532 bans
Tidehunter
245 picks · 390 bans
Pangolier
241 picks · 342 bans
Shadow Demon
231 picks · 242 bans
Tiny
225 picks · 296 bans
Monkey King
224 picks · 474 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)11% vs 37%
Hero pool strength62% Hokori
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:27
Thunder Awaken 67%Hokori 33%
The model gave 67% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Hokori in 34:37.
Game 2prediction missed40:10
Thunder Awaken 67%Hokori 33%
The model gave 67% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Hokori in 27:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 67%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2