The International 10 (2021) · BO5
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 2:3series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:3
Team Spiritwin 3:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 28 games
Pangoliersignature
Xiao8 · 26 games
Elder Titansignature
y` · 25 games
Leshracsignature
NothingToSay · 23 games
Magnussignature
NothingToSay · 20 games
Enchantresssignature
y` · 19 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Ame · 19 games
Sand Kingsignature
Faith_bian · 17 games
Team Spirit
Miranasignature
Mira · 35 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 34 games
Tinysignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 29 games
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 26 games
Lionsignature
Miposhka · 24 games
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 23 games
Phoenixsignature
Mira · 20 games
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
313 picks · 178 bans
Mars
295 picks · 406 bans
Lina
285 picks · 572 bans
Pangolier
259 picks · 366 bans
Shadow Demon
250 picks · 256 bans
Tidehunter
250 picks · 419 bans
Hoodwink
240 picks · 86 bans
Void Spirit
235 picks · 258 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 69%
Hero pool strength55% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total68% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:18
LGD Gaming 59%Team Spirit 41%
The model gave 59% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 38:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaAme
Naga SirenYatoro
LycanFaith_bian
Void SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
PangolierNothingToSay
TidehunterCollapse
IoXinQ
Elder TitanMiposhka
Disruptory`
LionMira
Game 2prediction missed8:24
LGD Gaming 59%Team Spirit 41%
The model gave 59% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingAme
LunaYatoro
Nature's ProphetFaith_bian
PuckTORONTOTOKYO
LeshracNothingToSay
MagnusCollapse
EarthshakerXinQ
Dark WillowMira
Ioy`
BaneMiposhka
Game 3prediction correct43:17
LGD Gaming 60%Team Spirit 40%
The model gave 60% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 50:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SpectreAme
Phantom AssassinYatoro
TinkerNothingToSay
InvokerTORONTOTOKYO
BloodseekerFaith_bian
MagnusCollapse
RubickXinQ
Dark WillowMira
Undyingy`
DisruptorMiposhka
Game 4prediction correct23:2
LGD Gaming 61%Team Spirit 39%
The model gave 61% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 24:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaAme
Templar AssassinTORONTOTOKYO
KunkkaNothingToSay
SpectreYatoro
MagnusFaith_bian
AxeCollapse
UndyingXinQ
LionMira
Baney`
Winter WyvernMiposhka
Game 5prediction missed12:29
LGD Gaming 57%Team Spirit 43%
The model gave 57% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 36:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyAme
TerrorbladeYatoro
LycanFaith_bian
Ember SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
KunkkaNothingToSay
MagnusCollapse
Enchantressy`
BaneMira
Skywrath MageXinQ
Winter WyvernMiposhka
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 68%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 5