The International 10 (2021) · BO1
result vs predictionTTTeam Thunderhideloss 0:1
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:1
TGTeam Golemwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Thunderhide
No games played over 6 months.
Team Golem
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
313 picks · 178 bans
Mars
295 picks · 408 bans
Lina
285 picks · 574 bans
Pangolier
260 picks · 366 bans
Shadow Demon
250 picks · 257 bans
Tidehunter
250 picks · 419 bans
Hoodwink
241 picks · 87 bans
Void Spirit
235 picks · 258 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Team Thunderhide
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Team Thunderhide
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:45
Team Thunderhide 59%Team Golem 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Thunderhide — the game was taken by Team Golem in 29:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Thunderhide · 59%
Series resultTeam Golem 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1