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The International 10 (2021) · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 1:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
YapzOr · 12 games
75%
Magnus
Magnussignature
zai · 10 games
80%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
YapzOr · 8 games
75%
Puck
Pucksignature
Nisha · 8 games
63%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Puppey · 7 games
71%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Puppey · 7 games
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
MATUMBAMAN · 7 games
71%
Windranger
Windranger
YapzOr · 7 games
57%

Team Spirit

Mirana
Miranasignature
Mira · 35 games
74%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 33 games
58%
Tiny
Tinysignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 29 games
69%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 25 games
72%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 23 games
70%
Puck
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 23 games
70%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Mira · 20 games
75%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 18 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
312 picks · 178 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
294 picks · 408 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
284 picks · 573 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
260 picks · 366 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
249 picks · 257 bans
58%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
249 picks · 419 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
241 picks · 88 bans
45%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
233 picks · 257 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 68%
Hero pool strength54% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total76% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:16
Team Secret 38%Team Spirit 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Secret in 39:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeMATUMBAMAN
59% · 98 games48% · 71 game
SpectreYatoro
Spectre
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNisha
52% · 215 games45% · 158 games
Storm SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Storm Spirit
Magnus
Magnuszai
59% · 93 games41% · 289 games
MarsCollapse
Mars
Rubick
RubickYapzOr
55% · 91 game36% · 17 games
JakiroMiposhka
Jakiro
Elder Titan
Elder TitanPuppey
56% · 133 games44% · 95 games
IoMira
Io
Game 2prediction correct19:23
Team Secret 36%Team Spirit 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 42:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautMATUMBAMAN
44% · 135 games49% · 92 games
KunkkaTORONTOTOKYO
Kunkka
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNisha
49% · 226 games46% · 141 game
MorphlingYatoro
Morphling
Enchantress
EnchantressPuppey
47% · 154 games54% · 210 games
TidehunterCollapse
Tidehunter
Magnus
Magnuszai
55% · 112 games60% · 120 games
Dark WillowMira
Dark Willow
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeYapzOr
46% · 231 game50% · 295 games
LionMiposhka
Lion
Game 3prediction correct14:29
Team Secret 34%Team Spirit 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 41:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyMATUMBAMAN
51% · 161 game44% · 120 games
SvenYatoro
Sven
Lycan
Lycanzai
45% · 71 game45% · 151 game
Storm SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Storm Spirit
Lina
LinaNisha
49% · 140 games53% · 77 games
MagnusCollapse
Magnus
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPuppey
57% · 94 games57% · 107 games
Winter WyvernMiposhka
Winter Wyvern
Elder Titan
Elder TitanYapzOr
51% · 103 games49% · 114 games
Dark WillowMira
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 76%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3