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The International 10 (2021) · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:2
series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
YapzOr · 11 games
82%
Magnus
Magnussignature
zai · 9 games
89%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
YapzOr · 8 games
75%
Puck
Pucksignature
Nisha · 8 games
63%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Puppey · 7 games
71%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Puppey · 7 games
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
MATUMBAMAN · 7 games
71%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Nisha · 6 games
17%

LGD Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 28 games
79%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xiao8 · 26 games
69%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 24 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
NothingToSay · 22 games
73%
Magnus
Magnussignature
NothingToSay · 20 games
85%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
y` · 19 games
84%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Ame · 19 games
84%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Faith_bian · 17 games
82%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
311 picks · 178 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
294 picks · 411 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
283 picks · 572 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
260 picks · 366 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
249 picks · 258 bans
58%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
249 picks · 421 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
242 picks · 88 bans
45%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
234 picks · 257 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 72%
Hero pool strength59% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total87% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:22
Team Secret 28%LGD Gaming 72%
The model gave 72% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 42:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverMATUMBAMAN
52% · 92 games45% · 145 games
TinyAme
Tiny
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNisha
52% · 194 games53% · 254 games
PuckNothingToSay
Puck
Magnus
Magnuszai
52% · 88 games42% · 49 games
LycanFaith_bian
Lycan
Snapfire
SnapfirePuppey
54% · 199 games47% · 224 games
PhoenixXinQ
Phoenix
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernYapzOr
56% · 144 games44% · 45 games
Ogre Magiy`
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct22:21
Team Secret 24%LGD Gaming 76%
The model gave 76% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 52:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaMATUMBAMAN
46% · 88 games52% · 136 games
Monkey KingAme
Monkey King
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterNisha
43% · 114 games54% · 72 games
LeshracNothingToSay
Leshrac
Beastmaster
Beastmasterzai
55% · 85 games58% · 118 games
Elder TitanXinQ
Elder Titan
Windranger
WindrangerYapzOr
49% · 56 games46% · 56 games
Legion CommanderFaith_bian
Legion Commander
Io
IoPuppey
43% · 89 games52% · 50 games
Baney`
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 87%
Series resultLGD Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2