The International 10 (2021) · BO3
result vs prediction
T1loss 1:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Vici Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Vici Gaming
Lion
Pyw · 26 games
Spectresignature
poyoyo · 25 games
Dragon Knightsignature
ELeVeN · 23 games
Timbersawsignature
ELeVeN · 22 games
Grimstroke
Dy · 21 game
Elder Titansignature
Dy · 20 games
Snapfiresignature
Pyw · 20 games
Doomsignature
ELeVeN · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
307 picks · 177 bans
Mars
294 picks · 406 bans
Lina
279 picks · 570 bans
Pangolier
259 picks · 366 bans
Shadow Demon
249 picks · 256 bans
Tidehunter
246 picks · 417 bans
Hoodwink
242 picks · 88 bans
Void Spirit
234 picks · 256 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 49%
Hero pool strength59% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:19
T1 53%Vici Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on T1 — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 41:07.
Game 2prediction missed18:19
T1 53%Vici Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on T1 — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 37:37.
Game 3prediction missed23:15
T1 53%Vici Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on T1 — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 28:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 53%
Series resultVici Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3