The International 10 (2021) · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingloss 0:2series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Secretwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Team Secret
Snapfiresignature
YapzOr · 11 games
Magnussignature
zai · 9 games
Pucksignature
Nisha · 8 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Puppey · 7 games
Monkey Kingsignature
YapzOr · 7 games
Tinysignature
MATUMBAMAN · 7 games
Leshracoften banned
Nisha · 6 games
Rubick
YapzOr · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
304 picks · 178 bans
Mars
292 picks · 406 bans
Lina
278 picks · 568 bans
Pangolier
259 picks · 367 bans
Shadow Demon
249 picks · 254 bans
Tidehunter
245 picks · 415 bans
Hoodwink
242 picks · 88 bans
Void Spirit
231 picks · 255 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 54%
Hero pool strength57% Team Secret
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total68% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:13
Invictus Gaming 68%Team Secret 32%
The model gave 68% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Team Secret in 30:12.
Game 2prediction missed23:33
Invictus Gaming 68%Team Secret 32%
The model gave 68% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Team Secret in 45:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 68%
Series resultTeam Secret 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2