The International 10 (2021) · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:1series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Evil Geniusesloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vici Gaming
Lion
Pyw · 24 games
Spectresignature
poyoyo · 24 games
Dragon Knightsignature
ELeVeN · 23 games
Timbersawsignature
ELeVeN · 22 games
Grimstroke
Dy · 21 game
Elder Titansignature
Dy · 20 games
Snapfiresignature
Pyw · 20 games
Doomsignature
ELeVeN · 19 games
Evil Geniuses
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 18 games
Marsoften banned
Tavo · 15 games
Lion
Thiolicor · 11 games
Svenoften banned
Costabile · 11 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Tavo · 10 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Costabile · 10 games
Invokeroften banned
4dr · 9 games
Timbersawoften banned
Tavo · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
303 picks · 179 bans
Mars
292 picks · 407 bans
Lina
278 picks · 568 bans
Pangolier
259 picks · 367 bans
Shadow Demon
249 picks · 254 bans
Tidehunter
245 picks · 412 bans
Hoodwink
242 picks · 88 bans
Void Spirit
229 picks · 256 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 46%
Hero pool strength59% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total64% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:19
Vici Gaming 36%Evil Geniuses 64%
The model gave 64% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 22:28.
Game 2prediction missed33:38
Vici Gaming 36%Evil Geniuses 64%
The model gave 64% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 57:37.
Game 3prediction missed30:15
Vici Gaming 36%Evil Geniuses 64%
The model gave 64% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 37:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 64%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3