The International 10 (2021) · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fnaticloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Miranasignature
Mira · 35 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 31 game
Tinysignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 28 games
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 23 games
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 22 games
Lionsignature
Miposhka · 21 game
Phoenixsignature
Mira · 20 games
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 18 games
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
304 picks · 179 bans
Mars
290 picks · 406 bans
Lina
277 picks · 568 bans
Pangolier
260 picks · 368 bans
Shadow Demon
248 picks · 254 bans
Hoodwink
243 picks · 89 bans
Tidehunter
243 picks · 413 bans
Void Spirit
227 picks · 257 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 41%
Hero pool strength60% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total75% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:6
Team Spirit 75%Fnatic 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 25:21.
Game 2prediction correct32:7
Team Spirit 75%Fnatic 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 37:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 75%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2