The International 10 (2021) · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:1series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:1
T1loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Pangoliersignature
Xiao8 · 26 games
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 26 games
Elder Titansignature
y` · 23 games
Leshracsignature
NothingToSay · 22 games
Enchantresssignature
y` · 19 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Ame · 19 games
Magnussignature
NothingToSay · 18 games
Sand Kingsignature
Faith_bian · 17 games
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
302 picks · 179 bans
Mars
290 picks · 403 bans
Lina
276 picks · 565 bans
Pangolier
260 picks · 368 bans
Shadow Demon
248 picks · 253 bans
Hoodwink
243 picks · 89 bans
Tidehunter
242 picks · 410 bans
Void Spirit
226 picks · 257 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 50%
Hero pool strength65% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total80% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:15
LGD Gaming 80%T1 20%
The model gave 80% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 34:57.
Game 2prediction missed23:27
LGD Gaming 80%T1 20%
The model gave 80% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by T1 in 54:45.
Game 3prediction correct32:9
LGD Gaming 80%T1 20%
The model gave 80% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 37:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 80%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3