The International 10 (2021) · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Undyingloss 0:1series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Fnaticwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Undying
No games played over 6 months.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
301 picks · 179 bans
Mars
290 picks · 401 bans
Lina
276 picks · 564 bans
Pangolier
260 picks · 367 bans
Shadow Demon
247 picks · 253 bans
Hoodwink
243 picks · 89 bans
Tidehunter
241 picks · 407 bans
Tiny
224 picks · 273 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 38%
Hero pool strength50% Team Undying
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Team Undying
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:28
Team Undying 79%Fnatic 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Fnatic in 28:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Undying · 79%
Series resultFnatic 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1