The International 10 (2021) · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Snapfiresignature
YapzOr · 11 games
Magnussignature
zai · 8 games
Pucksignature
Nisha · 8 games
Tinysignature
MATUMBAMAN · 7 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Puppey · 6 games
Leshracoften banned
Nisha · 6 games
Monkey Kingsignature
YapzOr · 6 games
Rubick
YapzOr · 6 games
OG
Hoodwink
Topson · 13 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
n0tail · 10 games
Magnusoften banned
Ceb · 10 games
Clockwerksignature
Saksa · 9 games
Elder Titan
n0tail · 9 games
Tinyoften banned
Topson · 9 games
Dark Willowsignature
Saksa · 8 games
Lionsignature
Saksa · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
301 picks · 179 bans
Mars
289 picks · 401 bans
Lina
276 picks · 564 bans
Pangolier
260 picks · 367 bans
Shadow Demon
247 picks · 253 bans
Hoodwink
242 picks · 88 bans
Tidehunter
241 picks · 406 bans
Tiny
224 picks · 271 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 38%
Hero pool strength55% Team Secret
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed51:27
Team Secret 49%OG 51%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by Team Secret in 40:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritNisha
UrsaSumaiL
MorphlingMATUMBAMAN
IoCeb
Earthshakerzai
InvokerTopson
Ancient ApparitionPuppey
Marsn0tail
Monkey KingYapzOr
TuskSaksa
Game 2prediction missed42:5
Team Secret 49%OG 51%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by Team Secret in 27:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaMATUMBAMAN
ClinkzSumaiL
TinkerNisha
Monkey KingCeb
Magnuszai
HoodwinkTopson
EnchantressPuppey
Elder TitanSaksa
WindrangerYapzOr
Legion Commandern0tail
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 53%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2