The International 10 (2021) · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:1series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Spiritloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Team Spirit
Miranasignature
Mira · 36 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 30 games
Tinysignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 27 games
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 24 games
Lionsignature
Miposhka · 22 games
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 22 games
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 21 game
Phoenixsignature
Mira · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
299 picks · 179 bans
Mars
287 picks · 401 bans
Lina
276 picks · 561 bans
Pangolier
260 picks · 367 bans
Shadow Demon
247 picks · 253 bans
Hoodwink
242 picks · 88 bans
Tidehunter
241 picks · 403 bans
Tiny
223 picks · 269 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 66%
Hero pool strength61% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:17
Invictus Gaming 40%Team Spirit 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 37:05.
Game 2prediction correct28:17
Invictus Gaming 40%Team Spirit 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 48:55.
Game 3prediction correct55:16
Invictus Gaming 40%Team Spirit 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 60%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3