The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 1:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Undyingloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 18 games
Marsoften banned
Tavo · 15 games
Svenoften banned
Costabile · 11 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Tavo · 10 games
Lion
Thiolicor · 10 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Costabile · 10 games
Invokeroften banned
4dr · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
KJ · 8 games
Team Undying
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
299 picks · 180 bans
Mars
289 picks · 397 bans
Lina
278 picks · 558 bans
Pangolier
260 picks · 372 bans
Shadow Demon
248 picks · 256 bans
Hoodwink
243 picks · 88 bans
Tidehunter
238 picks · 405 bans
Void Spirit
222 picks · 253 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total53% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed3:23
Evil Geniuses 53%Team Undying 47%
The model gave 53% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Team Undying in 28:18.
Game 2prediction missed29:27
Evil Geniuses 53%Team Undying 47%
The model gave 53% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Team Undying in 48:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 53%
Accuracy by game0 of 2