The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
beastcoastloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Miranasignature
Mira · 36 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 31 game
Tinysignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 27 games
Lionsignature
Mira · 22 games
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 22 games
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 21 game
Phoenixsignature
Mira · 20 games
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 20 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
299 picks · 178 bans
Mars
285 picks · 398 bans
Lina
278 picks · 551 bans
Pangolier
257 picks · 372 bans
Shadow Demon
248 picks · 257 bans
Hoodwink
245 picks · 89 bans
Tidehunter
235 picks · 399 bans
Void Spirit
220 picks · 251 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 27%
Hero pool strength61% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:23
Team Spirit 78%beastcoast 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 38:28.
Game 2prediction correct34:5
Team Spirit 78%beastcoast 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 28:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 78%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2