The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 18 games
Marsoften banned
Tavo · 14 games
Svenoften banned
Costabile · 11 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
4dr · 10 games
Lion
Thiolicor · 10 games
Invokeroften banned
4dr · 9 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Costabile · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
KJ · 8 games
Virtus.pro
Lionsignature
Save- · 20 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
1ls · 14 games
Timbersawsignature
DM · 10 games
Enchantresssignature
Save- · 9 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
1ls · 8 games
Tinysignature
gpK~ · 8 games
Void Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 8 games
Disruptor
1ls · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
299 picks · 177 bans
Mars
286 picks · 398 bans
Lina
280 picks · 550 bans
Pangolier
257 picks · 374 bans
Hoodwink
249 picks · 89 bans
Shadow Demon
248 picks · 257 bans
Tidehunter
235 picks · 395 bans
Luna
223 picks · 317 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 61%
Hero pool strength58% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:9
Evil Geniuses 55%Virtus.pro 45%
The model gave 55% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 33:29.
Game 2prediction missed31:16
Evil Geniuses 55%Virtus.pro 45%
The model gave 55% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 32:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 55%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2