The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Quincy Crewloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Snapfiresignature
YapzOr · 10 games
Magnussignature
zai · 7 games
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 7 games
Leshracoften banned
Nisha · 6 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Puppey · 5 games
Grimstroke
Puppey · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 5 games
Ogre Magi
Puppey · 5 games
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
299 picks · 176 bans
Mars
286 picks · 398 bans
Lina
280 picks · 550 bans
Pangolier
257 picks · 374 bans
Hoodwink
249 picks · 89 bans
Shadow Demon
248 picks · 257 bans
Tidehunter
235 picks · 395 bans
Luna
223 picks · 317 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 22%
Hero pool strength55% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Quincy Crew
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:26
Team Secret 48%Quincy Crew 52%
The model gave 52% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Team Secret in 56:55.
Game 2prediction missed41:15
Team Secret 48%Quincy Crew 52%
The model gave 52% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Team Secret in 45:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteQuincy Crew · 52%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2