The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SG e-sportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Pangoliersignature
Xiao8 · 25 games
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 25 games
Leshracsignature
NothingToSay · 21 game
Elder Titansignature
y` · 20 games
Enchantresssignature
y` · 19 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Ame · 18 games
Magnussignature
NothingToSay · 16 games
Sand Kingsignature
Faith_bian · 16 games
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
299 picks · 176 bans
Mars
286 picks · 398 bans
Lina
281 picks · 551 bans
Pangolier
258 picks · 374 bans
Hoodwink
250 picks · 89 bans
Shadow Demon
246 picks · 257 bans
Tidehunter
232 picks · 395 bans
Luna
225 picks · 314 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 24%
Hero pool strength64% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total94% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:18
LGD Gaming 94%SG e-sports 6%
The model gave 94% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 43:17.
Game 2prediction correct34:9
LGD Gaming 94%SG e-sports 6%
The model gave 94% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 25:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 94%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2