The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingloss 1:1series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:1
beastcoastloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vici Gaming
Lion
Pyw · 23 games
Spectresignature
poyoyo · 23 games
Dragon Knightsignature
ELeVeN · 22 games
Timbersawsignature
ELeVeN · 22 games
Grimstroke
Dy · 21 game
Doomsignature
ELeVeN · 19 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Ori · 18 games
Elder Titansignature
Dy · 17 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
298 picks · 176 bans
Mars
285 picks · 397 bans
Lina
280 picks · 550 bans
Pangolier
258 picks · 374 bans
Hoodwink
250 picks · 89 bans
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 257 bans
Tidehunter
231 picks · 395 bans
Luna
225 picks · 314 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 28%
Hero pool strength59% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:18
Vici Gaming 66%beastcoast 34%
The model gave 66% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 44:01.
Game 2prediction missed46:38
Vici Gaming 66%beastcoast 34%
The model gave 66% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by beastcoast in 52:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 66%
Accuracy by game1 of 2