The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
T1win 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Allianceloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
298 picks · 176 bans
Mars
285 picks · 397 bans
Lina
279 picks · 549 bans
Pangolier
258 picks · 374 bans
Hoodwink
250 picks · 89 bans
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 256 bans
Tidehunter
231 picks · 393 bans
Luna
225 picks · 314 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 25%
Hero pool strength50% T1
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total62% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:23
T1 62%Alliance 38%
The model gave 62% on T1 — the game was taken by Alliance in 26:27.
Game 2prediction missed21:48
T1 62%Alliance 38%
The model gave 62% on T1 — the game was taken by Alliance in 57:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 62%
Series resultT1 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2