The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 1:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Fnaticloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
300 picks · 174 bans
Mars
286 picks · 398 bans
Lina
278 picks · 543 bans
Pangolier
257 picks · 374 bans
Hoodwink
253 picks · 88 bans
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 256 bans
Tidehunter
228 picks · 388 bans
Luna
224 picks · 315 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 39%
Hero pool strength50% beastcoast
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:42
beastcoast 45%Fnatic 55%
The model gave 55% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Fnatic in 47:37.
Game 2prediction correct24:52
beastcoast 45%Fnatic 55%
The model gave 55% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Fnatic in 43:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 55%
Accuracy by game2 of 2