The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Quincy Crewloss 0:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
Team Spirit
Miranasignature
Mira · 36 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 30 games
Tinysignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 24 games
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 22 games
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 21 game
Lionsignature
Mira · 21 game
Phoenixsignature
Mira · 20 games
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
299 picks · 174 bans
Mars
286 picks · 397 bans
Lina
278 picks · 543 bans
Pangolier
257 picks · 374 bans
Hoodwink
253 picks · 88 bans
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 256 bans
Tidehunter
228 picks · 387 bans
Luna
224 picks · 315 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 60%
Hero pool strength60% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:16
Quincy Crew 29%Team Spirit 71%
The model gave 71% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 43:11.
Game 2prediction correct21:32
Quincy Crew 29%Team Spirit 71%
The model gave 71% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 46:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 71%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2