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The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Vici Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xiao8 · 25 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 24 games
79%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 20 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
NothingToSay · 20 games
70%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
y` · 18 games
83%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Ame · 18 games
83%
Magnus
Magnussignature
NothingToSay · 16 games
81%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Faith_bian · 16 games
81%

Vici Gaming

Lion
Lion
Pyw · 23 games
57%
Spectre
Spectresignature
poyoyo · 23 games
78%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
ELeVeN · 22 games
68%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ELeVeN · 22 games
73%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 21 game
48%
Doom
Doomsignature
ELeVeN · 19 games
68%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Ori · 18 games
72%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Dy · 16 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
299 picks · 174 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
286 picks · 396 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
278 picks · 542 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
257 picks · 374 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
253 picks · 88 bans
46%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 256 bans
59%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
227 picks · 387 bans
51%
Luna
Luna
223 picks · 315 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 53%
Hero pool strength55% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total76% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:14
LGD Gaming 64%Vici Gaming 36%
The model gave 64% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 45:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaAme
46% · 103 games56% · 12 games
Clinkzpoyoyo
Clinkz
Invoker
InvokerNothingToSay
45% · 127 games53% · 96 games
Ember SpiritOri
Ember Spirit
Visage
VisageFaith_bian
29% · 3 games52% · 123 games
TidehunterELeVeN
Tidehunter
Earthshaker
EarthshakerXinQ
52% · 47 games52% · 104 games
SnapfirePyw
Snapfire
Enchantress
Enchantressy`
49% · 137 games53% · 82 games
Elder TitanDy
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct26:7
LGD Gaming 67%Vici Gaming 33%
The model gave 67% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 18:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracNothingToSay
57% · 79 games51% · 86 games
Terrorbladepoyoyo
Terrorblade
Monkey King
Monkey KingAme
55% · 88 games46% · 58 games
KunkkaOri
Kunkka
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderFaith_bian
48% · 38 games49% · 56 games
EarthshakerELeVeN
Earthshaker
Snapfire
SnapfireXinQ
52% · 70 games40% · 37 games
Skywrath MagePyw
Skywrath Mage
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magiy`
55% · 31 game44% · 69 games
DisruptorDy
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 76%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2