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The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Lion
Lionsignature
Save- · 20 games
70%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
1ls · 14 games
71%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
DM · 10 games
70%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Save- · 9 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
gpK~ · 8 games
75%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 8 games
75%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
1ls · 7 games
86%
Disruptor
Disruptor
1ls · 7 games
57%

Thunder Awaken

Mars
Marsoften banned
Frank · 14 games
29%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Mjz · 10 games
30%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
MoOz · 6 games
17%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 6 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Frank · 5 games
40%
Lina
Linaoften banned
MoOz · 5 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Leostyle · 5 games
40%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 5 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
297 picks · 176 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
286 picks · 396 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
277 picks · 542 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
257 picks · 372 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
254 picks · 88 bans
46%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
244 picks · 256 bans
59%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
227 picks · 382 bans
51%
Luna
Luna
224 picks · 318 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 13%
Hero pool strength67% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total81% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:21
Virtus.pro 70%Thunder Awaken 30%
The model gave 70% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 41:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenNightfall
44% · 76 games47% · 73 games
LunaMnz
Luna
Necrophos
NecrophosDM
53% · 11 games60% · 50 games
DoomFrank
Doom
Queen of Pain
Queen of PaingpK~
47% · 56 games46% · 101 game
Storm SpiritLeostyle
Storm Spirit
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSave-
47% · 139 games54% · 73 games
IoMjz
Io
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition1ls
53% · 141 game53% · 126 games
Nyx AssassinMoOz
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct29:6
Virtus.pro 69%Thunder Awaken 31%
The model gave 69% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 22:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaNightfall
46% · 114 games42% · 39 games
Phantom LancerMnz
Phantom Lancer
Lycan
LycanDM
46% · 61 game62% · 55 games
MagnusFrank
Magnus
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritgpK~
45% · 116 games51% · 166 games
Void SpiritLeostyle
Void Spirit
Io
Io1ls
48% · 74 games54% · 64 games
WeaverMoOz
Weaver
Bane
BaneSave-
52% · 54 games54% · 95 games
Ancient ApparitionMjz
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 81%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2