European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxwin 2:1series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Spirit Academyloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Lynx
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 22 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 15 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
7jesu · 14 games
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 14 games
Sand King
mellojul · 13 games
Axeoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 12 games
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 12 games
Abaddonoften banned
7jesu · 11 games
Team Spirit Academy
Dark Willow
Aidar · 16 games
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 12 games
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 12 games
Dazzle
kyford · 10 games
Jakirooften banned
kyford · 10 games
Tidehunteroften banned
SunshineRR · 10 games
Primal Beastoften banned
SunshineRR · 9 games
Timbersawoften banned
86 · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
609 picks · 933 bans
Tusk
519 picks · 419 bans
Centaur Warrunner
476 picks · 625 bans
Dragon Knight
445 picks · 586 bans
Shadow Demon
434 picks · 942 bans
Warlock
402 picks · 247 bans
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 661 bans
Tiny
392 picks · 439 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 39%
Hero pool strength60% Team Lynx
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total79% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 2prediction correct27:25
Team Lynx 67%Team Spirit Academy 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 46:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz7jesu
Windrangerrubikon155
Puckmellojul
Kunkkakae
LargoVladikTheHtiviy
Sand King86
Tuskkreker
Ancient ApparitionAidar
HoodwinkQBFY
Undyingkyford
Game 3prediction missed18:35
Team Lynx 65%Team Spirit Academy 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 34:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshracmellojul
Slarkrubikon155
Lifestealer7jesu
Brewmasterkae
BatriderVladikTheHtiviy
Rubick86
Warlockkreker
Jakirokyford
Nyx AssassinQBFY
LionAidar
Game 4prediction correct36:24
Team Lynx 69%Team Spirit Academy 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 40:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa7jesu
Brewmasterkae
Keeper of the Lightmellojul
Mars86
RazorVladikTheHtiviy
Morphlingrubikon155
Phoenixkreker
Dark WillowAidar
Nyx AssassinQBFY
Undyingkyford
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 79%
Series resultTeam Lynx 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3