The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 1:1series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Elephantloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Snapfiresignature
YapzOr · 10 games
Magnussignature
zai · 7 games
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 7 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Puppey · 5 games
Grimstroke
Puppey · 5 games
Leshracoften banned
Nisha · 5 games
Ogre Magi
Puppey · 5 games
Rubick
YapzOr · 5 games
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
300 picks · 177 bans
Mars
286 picks · 400 bans
Lina
281 picks · 544 bans
Pangolier
259 picks · 375 bans
Hoodwink
258 picks · 90 bans
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 258 bans
Luna
225 picks · 323 bans
Tidehunter
225 picks · 381 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Elephant
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:32
Team Secret 48%Elephant 52%
The model gave 52% on Elephant — the game was taken by Team Secret in 1:02:44.
Game 2prediction correct21:44
Team Secret 48%Elephant 52%
The model gave 52% on Elephant — the game was taken by Elephant in 52:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteElephant · 52%
Accuracy by game1 of 2