The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SG e-sportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
300 picks · 177 bans
Mars
286 picks · 399 bans
Lina
280 picks · 544 bans
Pangolier
259 picks · 374 bans
Hoodwink
257 picks · 90 bans
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 258 bans
Luna
225 picks · 323 bans
Tidehunter
225 picks · 380 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)26% vs 27%
Hero pool strength50% beastcoast
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total58% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:22
beastcoast 58%SG e-sports 42%
The model gave 58% on beastcoast — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 35:49.
Game 2prediction missed17:25
beastcoast 58%SG e-sports 42%
The model gave 58% on beastcoast — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 33:08.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 58%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2