The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
T1loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Hoodwink
Saksa · 12 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
n0tail · 10 games
Tinyoften banned
Topson · 8 games
Clockwerksignature
Saksa · 7 games
Dark Willow
Saksa · 7 games
Lionsignature
Saksa · 7 games
Magnusoften banned
Ceb · 7 games
Oracleoften banned
n0tail · 7 games
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
301 picks · 177 bans
Mars
288 picks · 400 bans
Lina
282 picks · 543 bans
Hoodwink
260 picks · 90 bans
Pangolier
259 picks · 374 bans
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 258 bans
Luna
227 picks · 324 bans
Tidehunter
225 picks · 382 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:15
OG 42%T1 58%
The model gave 58% on T1 — the game was taken by OG in 28:13.
Game 2prediction missed31:32
OG 42%T1 58%
The model gave 58% on T1 — the game was taken by OG in 39:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 58%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2