The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 1:1series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Allianceloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 19 games
Lion
BoBoKa · 16 games
Axesignature
Xxs · 15 games
Puckoften banned
White丶Album · 15 games
Treant Protector
LaNm · 13 games
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 12 games
Magnussignature
White丶Album · 12 games
Storm Spiritsignature
White丶Album · 11 games
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
301 picks · 177 bans
Mars
288 picks · 399 bans
Lina
282 picks · 542 bans
Hoodwink
260 picks · 90 bans
Pangolier
259 picks · 374 bans
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 258 bans
Luna
227 picks · 324 bans
Tidehunter
225 picks · 381 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 29%
Hero pool strength57% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total71% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:20
Team Aster 71%Alliance 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Alliance in 33:37.
Game 2prediction correct26:24
Team Aster 71%Alliance 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 39:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 71%
Accuracy by game1 of 2