The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:0series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Virtus.pro
Lionsignature
Save- · 20 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
1ls · 14 games
Timbersawsignature
DM · 10 games
Enchantresssignature
Save- · 9 games
Tinysignature
gpK~ · 8 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
1ls · 7 games
Disruptor
1ls · 7 games
Invokersignature
gpK~ · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
301 picks · 176 bans
Mars
288 picks · 399 bans
Lina
281 picks · 541 bans
Hoodwink
260 picks · 89 bans
Pangolier
259 picks · 374 bans
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 258 bans
Luna
227 picks · 323 bans
Tidehunter
225 picks · 379 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 63%
Hero pool strength60% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:17
Invictus Gaming 38%Virtus.pro 62%
The model gave 62% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 37:13.
Game 2prediction correct15:32
Invictus Gaming 38%Virtus.pro 62%
The model gave 62% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 36:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 62%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2