The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Undyingwin 2:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Undying
No games played over 6 months.
Thunder Awaken
Marsoften banned
Frank · 12 games
Phoenixoften banned
Mjz · 9 games
Earth Spirit
MoOz · 6 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 6 games
Centaur Warrunner
Frank · 5 games
Linaoften banned
Leostyle · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Leostyle · 5 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
301 picks · 176 bans
Mars
286 picks · 399 bans
Lina
281 picks · 539 bans
Hoodwink
260 picks · 89 bans
Pangolier
259 picks · 374 bans
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 258 bans
Luna
227 picks · 323 bans
Tidehunter
224 picks · 379 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 14%
Hero pool strength57% Team Undying
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Team Undying
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:27
Team Undying 85%Thunder Awaken 15%
The model gave 85% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 49:10.
Game 2prediction missed10:34
Team Undying 85%Thunder Awaken 15%
The model gave 85% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 32:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Undying · 85%
Series resultTeam Undying 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2