The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SG e-sportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Snapfiresignature
Puppey · 8 games
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 7 games
Magnussignature
zai · 6 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Puppey · 5 games
Grimstroke
Puppey · 5 games
Rubick
YapzOr · 5 games
Svenoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 5 games
Tinyoften banned
YapzOr · 5 games
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
301 picks · 176 bans
Mars
285 picks · 400 bans
Lina
284 picks · 538 bans
Hoodwink
260 picks · 89 bans
Pangolier
259 picks · 374 bans
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 260 bans
Luna
227 picks · 325 bans
Tidehunter
224 picks · 379 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 29%
Hero pool strength54% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:15
Team Secret 57%SG e-sports 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 33:25.
Game 2prediction correct37:22
Team Secret 57%SG e-sports 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 36:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 57%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2