The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Quincy Crewloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vici Gaming
Lion
Pyw · 23 games
Dragon Knightsignature
ELeVeN · 22 games
Timbersawsignature
ELeVeN · 22 games
Grimstroke
Dy · 21 game
Spectresignature
poyoyo · 21 game
Doomsignature
ELeVeN · 18 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Ori · 17 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Dy · 16 games
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
308 picks · 178 bans
Lina
284 picks · 541 bans
Mars
283 picks · 406 bans
Hoodwink
263 picks · 90 bans
Pangolier
259 picks · 376 bans
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 260 bans
Luna
227 picks · 328 bans
Tidehunter
225 picks · 380 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength59% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:11
Vici Gaming 60%Quincy Crew 40%
The model gave 60% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 41:02.
Game 2prediction correct32:11
Vici Gaming 60%Quincy Crew 40%
The model gave 60% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 37:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 60%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2