The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Elephantloss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Vici Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Vici Gaming
Lion
Pyw · 23 games
Dragon Knightsignature
ELeVeN · 22 games
Timbersawsignature
ELeVeN · 22 games
Grimstroke
Dy · 21 game
Spectresignature
poyoyo · 21 game
Doomsignature
ELeVeN · 17 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Dy · 16 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Ori · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
307 picks · 179 bans
Lina
284 picks · 538 bans
Mars
283 picks · 405 bans
Hoodwink
266 picks · 91 bans
Pangolier
261 picks · 371 bans
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 257 bans
Luna
228 picks · 325 bans
Tidehunter
219 picks · 375 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 48%
Hero pool strength59% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 5
Model total54% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:16
Elephant 46%Vici Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 37:21.
Game 2prediction correct27:21
Elephant 46%Vici Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 45:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 54%
Series resultVici Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2