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The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 1:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:1
OGloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Lion
Lionsignature
Save- · 20 games
70%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
1ls · 14 games
71%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
DM · 10 games
70%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Save- · 9 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
gpK~ · 8 games
75%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
1ls · 7 games
86%
Invoker
Invokersignature
gpK~ · 7 games
71%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Save- · 7 games
57%

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Saksa · 12 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
n0tail · 8 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Saksa · 7 games
71%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Saksa · 7 games
57%
Lion
Lionsignature
Saksa · 7 games
71%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ceb · 7 games
43%
Axe
Axesignature
Ceb · 6 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ceb · 6 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
310 picks · 179 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
286 picks · 407 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
283 picks · 541 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
269 picks · 92 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
263 picks · 371 bans
51%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 257 bans
59%
Luna
Luna
230 picks · 327 bans
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
216 picks · 373 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 64%
Hero pool strength56% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed53:36
Virtus.pro 55%OG 45%
The model gave 55% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by OG in 51:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNightfall
50% · 6 games46% · 64 games
MorphlingSumaiL
Morphling
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDM
62% · 74 games42% · 31 game
WindrangerTopson
Windranger
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritgpK~
46% · 108 games45% · 51 game
Sand KingCeb
Sand King
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterSave-
51% · 26 games57% · 68 games
Nyx AssassinSaksa
Nyx Assassin
Io
Io1ls
45% · 81 game53% · 81 game
Ancient Apparitionn0tail
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct38:34
Virtus.pro 54%OG 46%
The model gave 54% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 45:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNightfall
50% · 6 games52% · 76 games
TinySumaiL
Tiny
Necrophos
NecrophosgpK~
64% · 22 games45% · 43 games
LycanCeb
Lycan
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetDM
49% · 47 games39% · 11 games
ClinkzTopson
Clinkz
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSave-
50% · 133 games47% · 42 games
SnapfireSaksa
Snapfire
Undying
Undying1ls
54% · 45 games48% · 81 game
Oraclen0tail
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2