The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
beastcoastwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Snapfiresignature
Puppey · 8 games
Pucksignature
Nisha · 6 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Puppey · 5 games
Grimstroke
Puppey · 5 games
Magnusoften banned
zai · 5 games
Svenoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 5 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Puppey · 5 games
Centaur Warrunner
zai · 4 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
310 picks · 177 bans
Mars
284 picks · 407 bans
Lina
282 picks · 541 bans
Hoodwink
270 picks · 92 bans
Pangolier
263 picks · 370 bans
Shadow Demon
246 picks · 257 bans
Luna
231 picks · 327 bans
Tidehunter
215 picks · 372 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 24%
Hero pool strength55% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:32
Team Secret 58%beastcoast 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Secret — the game was taken by beastcoast in 36:23.
Game 2prediction missed29:35
Team Secret 58%beastcoast 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Secret — the game was taken by beastcoast in 46:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 58%
Series resultbeastcoast 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2