The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Elephantloss 1:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Fnaticloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
309 picks · 176 bans
Mars
282 picks · 406 bans
Lina
281 picks · 540 bans
Hoodwink
269 picks · 92 bans
Pangolier
263 picks · 370 bans
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 257 bans
Luna
231 picks · 326 bans
Tidehunter
212 picks · 371 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 47%
Hero pool strength50% Elephant
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Elephant
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:17
Elephant 59%Fnatic 41%
The model gave 59% on Elephant — the game was taken by Fnatic in 33:31.
Game 2prediction missed13:33
Elephant 59%Fnatic 41%
The model gave 59% on Elephant — the game was taken by Fnatic in 42:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteElephant · 59%
Accuracy by game0 of 2