The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SG e-sportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vici Gaming
Lion
Pyw · 23 games
Dragon Knightsignature
ELeVeN · 22 games
Timbersawsignature
ELeVeN · 22 games
Grimstroke
Dy · 21 game
Spectresignature
poyoyo · 21 game
Doomsignature
ELeVeN · 17 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Dy · 16 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Ori · 16 games
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
309 picks · 176 bans
Mars
282 picks · 406 bans
Lina
281 picks · 540 bans
Hoodwink
269 picks · 92 bans
Pangolier
263 picks · 370 bans
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 257 bans
Luna
231 picks · 326 bans
Tidehunter
212 picks · 371 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 25%
Hero pool strength58% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:6
Vici Gaming 73%SG e-sports 27%
The model gave 73% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 35:29.
Game 2prediction correct44:24
Vici Gaming 73%SG e-sports 27%
The model gave 73% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 55:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 73%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2