The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Allianceloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Lionsignature
Save- · 20 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
1ls · 14 games
Timbersawsignature
DM · 10 games
Enchantresssignature
Save- · 9 games
Tinysignature
gpK~ · 8 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
1ls · 7 games
Invokersignature
gpK~ · 7 games
Linaoften banned
Save- · 7 games
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
309 picks · 176 bans
Mars
282 picks · 406 bans
Lina
281 picks · 540 bans
Hoodwink
269 picks · 92 bans
Pangolier
263 picks · 370 bans
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 257 bans
Luna
230 picks · 326 bans
Tidehunter
212 picks · 370 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 27%
Hero pool strength60% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total76% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:30
Virtus.pro 76%Alliance 24%
The model gave 76% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 27:28.
Game 2prediction correct28:15
Virtus.pro 76%Alliance 24%
The model gave 76% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 30:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 76%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2