The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
T1loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 16 games
Marsoften banned
Tavo · 11 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Tavo · 10 games
Lion
Thiolicor · 9 games
Svenoften banned
Costabile · 9 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Costabile · 9 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Thiolicor · 8 games
Clockwerksignature
KJ · 7 games
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
309 picks · 175 bans
Mars
282 picks · 406 bans
Lina
281 picks · 540 bans
Hoodwink
269 picks · 92 bans
Pangolier
263 picks · 370 bans
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 257 bans
Luna
230 picks · 325 bans
Tidehunter
211 picks · 370 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:15
Evil Geniuses 70%T1 30%
The model gave 70% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by T1 in 45:17.
Game 2prediction missed9:12
Evil Geniuses 70%T1 30%
The model gave 70% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by T1 in 27:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 70%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2