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The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Saksa · 12 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
n0tail · 8 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Saksa · 7 games
71%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Saksa · 7 games
57%
Lion
Lionsignature
Saksa · 7 games
71%
Axe
Axesignature
Ceb · 6 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ceb · 6 games
83%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Ceb · 6 games
67%

Thunder Awaken

Mars
Marsoften banned
Frank · 9 games
44%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Mjz · 8 games
38%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 5 games
20%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Leostyle · 4 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Frank · 4 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
MoOz · 4 games
25%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
MoOz · 4 games
25%
Lina
Linaoften banned
MoOz · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
309 picks · 175 bans
52%
Lina
Lina
281 picks · 540 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
280 picks · 406 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
269 picks · 92 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
262 picks · 370 bans
51%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 257 bans
58%
Luna
Luna
230 picks · 325 bans
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
210 picks · 370 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 18%
Hero pool strength59% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:32
OG 55%Thunder Awaken 45%
The model gave 55% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 44:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingTopson
46% · 187 games56% · 95 games
Troll WarlordMnz
Troll Warlord
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetCeb
47% · 113 games46% · 83 games
ViperLeostyle
Viper
Magnus
MagnusSumaiL
52% · 70 games61% · 99 games
BeastmasterFrank
Beastmaster
Pangolier
PangolierSaksa
48% · 217 games47% · 268 games
MarsMjz
Mars
Legion Commander
Legion Commandern0tail
49% · 78 games49% · 120 games
Earth SpiritMoOz
Earth Spirit
Game 2prediction correct24:17
OG 54%Thunder Awaken 46%
The model gave 54% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 27:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingSumaiL
46% · 96 games52% · 119 games
MedusaMnz
Medusa
Tidehunter
TidehunterTopson
49% · 181 game48% · 264 games
MarsLeostyle
Mars
Earthshaker
EarthshakerCeb
58% · 68 games45% · 42 games
Night StalkerFrank
Night Stalker
Snapfire
SnapfireSaksa
53% · 117 games44% · 52 games
WeaverMoOz
Weaver
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetn0tail
55% · 74 games50% · 59 games
UndyingMjz
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 59%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2