The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Quincy Crewloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Pangoliersignature
Xiao8 · 25 games
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 22 games
Leshracsignature
NothingToSay · 20 games
Elder Titansignature
y` · 18 games
Enchantresssignature
y` · 18 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Ame · 16 games
Sand Kingsignature
Faith_bian · 16 games
Axesignature
Faith_bian · 15 games
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
311 picks · 174 bans
Lina
282 picks · 539 bans
Mars
280 picks · 406 bans
Hoodwink
269 picks · 97 bans
Pangolier
262 picks · 373 bans
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 257 bans
Luna
231 picks · 326 bans
Tidehunter
209 picks · 369 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 50%
Hero pool strength63% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total83% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:8
LGD Gaming 83%Quincy Crew 17%
The model gave 83% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 31:10.
Game 2prediction correct29:13
LGD Gaming 83%Quincy Crew 17%
The model gave 83% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 29:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 83%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2