DreamLeague Division 2 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Virtus.proloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Disruptor
Se · 42 games
Puckoften banned
Worick · 40 games
Warlock
MoOz · 36 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 34 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 33 games
Jakirooften banned
MoOz · 33 games
Abaddonsignature
Kami · 32 games
Bristleback
Nefrit · 32 games
Virtus.pro
Jakirooften banned
Fly · 29 games
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 28 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 24 games
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 24 games
Pucksignature
Abed · 23 games
Warlock
Fly · 23 games
Skywrath Mage
Antares · 18 games
Chenoften banned
Fly · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
608 picks · 933 bans
Tusk
523 picks · 423 bans
Centaur Warrunner
475 picks · 627 bans
Dragon Knight
451 picks · 591 bans
Shadow Demon
437 picks · 943 bans
Warlock
403 picks · 246 bans
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 661 bans
Tiny
391 picks · 438 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total55% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:19
Zero Tenacity 56%Virtus.pro 44%
The model gave 56% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 43:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaKami
UrsaTimado
Ember SpiritWorick
Storm SpiritAbed
LargoNefrit
Dark SeerSabeRLight-
PhoenixMoOz
ChenFly
Nyx AssassindEsire
Dark WillowHellscream
Game 2prediction missed15:26
Zero Tenacity 54%Virtus.pro 46%
The model gave 54% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 47:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeKami
Templar AssassinTimado
Shadow FiendWorick
Queen of PainAbed
BeastmasterNefrit
SlardarSabeRLight-
ChenMoOz
PhoenixFly
TinydEsire
Dark WillowHellscream
Game 3prediction correct42:16
Zero Tenacity 54%Virtus.pro 46%
The model gave 54% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 1:05:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterKami
ClinkzTimado
Storm SpiritWorick
Void SpiritAbed
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
SlardarSabeRLight-
PhoenixMoOz
Skywrath MageHellscream
HoodwinkdEsire
JakiroFly
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 55%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3