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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamwin 2:1
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:1
V-Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winstrike Team

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 17 games
47%
Lina
Linaoften banned
re1bl · 15 games
47%
Mars
Marssignature
chshrct · 15 games
60%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Panto · 13 games
38%
Lion
Lion
yamich · 13 games
38%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Panto · 12 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
yamich · 12 games
33%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 12 games
83%

V-Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 34 games
68%
Lina
Linasignature
hAze · 25 games
60%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 24 games
79%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 23 games
74%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Malady · 19 games
63%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 17 games
53%
Puck
Puckoften banned
hAze · 17 games
53%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
laise · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
313 picks · 174 bans
52%
Lina
Lina
283 picks · 538 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
279 picks · 406 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
274 picks · 100 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
263 picks · 373 bans
51%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
243 picks · 255 bans
59%
Luna
Luna
231 picks · 328 bans
50%
Abaddon
Abaddon
208 picks · 239 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 68%
Hero pool strength60% V-Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total67% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:45
Winstrike Team 41%V-Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 39:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svendyrachyo
51% · 46 games42% · 38 games
SpectreTA2000
Spectre
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerchshrct
61% · 73 games38% · 77 games
Night Stalkerlaise
Night Stalker
Sand King
Sand Kingmellojul
51% · 71 game48% · 78 games
BatriderhAze
Batrider
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonyamich
59% · 91 game45% · 15 games
JakiroMalady
Jakiro
Silencer
SilencerPanto
44% · 16 games50% · 89 games
RubickArrOw
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed36:16
Winstrike Team 40%V-Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 37:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckmellojul
50% · 214 games49% · 117 games
MedusaTA2000
Medusa
Spectre
Spectredyrachyo
53% · 43 games41% · 80 games
Legion Commanderlaise
Legion Commander
Beastmaster
Beastmasterchshrct
65% · 94 games41% · 132 games
BatriderhAze
Batrider
Mirana
Miranayamich
52% · 151 game50% · 173 games
LinaArrOw
Lina
Disruptor
DisruptorPanto
56% · 69 games39% · 69 games
Witch DoctorMalady
Witch Doctor
Game 3prediction missed29:18
Winstrike Team 42%V-Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 41:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
Clinkzdyrachyo
45% · 15 games49% · 159 games
TinyTA2000
Tiny
Mars
Marschshrct
46% · 270 games50% · 134 games
Timbersawlaise
Timbersaw
Sand King
Sand Kingmellojul
48% · 95 games47% · 127 games
InvokerhAze
Invoker
Weaver
Weaveryamich
52% · 66 games53% · 120 games
RubickArrOw
Rubick
Elder Titan
Elder TitanPanto
60% · 118 games42% · 24 games
SilencerMalady
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 67%
Series resultWinstrike Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3