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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Khanloss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
V-Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Khan

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
pJonn · 8 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Dodren · 7 games
86%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
antoha · 6 games
83%
Mars
Marssignature
pJonn · 6 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
layme · 6 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
goddam · 6 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
pJonn · 6 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pJonn · 5 games
80%

V-Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 34 games
68%
Lina
Linasignature
hAze · 25 games
60%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 24 games
79%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 23 games
74%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Malady · 19 games
63%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 17 games
53%
Puck
Puckoften banned
hAze · 17 games
53%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
laise · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
313 picks · 174 bans
52%
Lina
Lina
282 picks · 538 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
279 picks · 404 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
274 picks · 100 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
263 picks · 372 bans
51%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
243 picks · 255 bans
59%
Luna
Luna
231 picks · 328 bans
50%
Abaddon
Abaddon
208 picks · 239 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% V-Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total71% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:36
Khan 39%V-Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 39:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Magelayme
35% · 17 games47% · 57 games
SpectreTA2000
Spectre
Tiny
TinyDodren
50% · 101 game51% · 27 games
Venomancerlaise
Venomancer
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerpJonn
48% · 95 games56% · 173 games
Void SpirithAze
Void Spirit
Lina
Linagoddam
54% · 117 games48% · 24 games
WarlockMalady
Warlock
Io
Ioantoha
43% · 46 games52% · 95 games
Monkey KingArrOw
Monkey King
Game 2prediction correct6:19
Khan 40%V-Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 20:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusalayme
49% · 120 games47% · 45 games
Anti-MageTA2000
Anti-Mage
Night Stalker
Night StalkerpJonn
44% · 42 games49% · 67 games
RazorhAze
Razor
Tiny
TinyDodren
51% · 90 games51% · 149 games
Tidehunterlaise
Tidehunter
Rubick
Rubickgoddam
49% · 81 game52% · 71 game
WeaverArrOw
Weaver
Io
Ioantoha
52% · 41 game55% · 42 games
Ogre MagiMalady
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 71%
Series resultV-Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2