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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
V-Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Lina
Linasignature
[T]SA · 26 games
69%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
[T]SA · 25 games
64%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Dendi · 21 game
52%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Watson · 19 games
53%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Limitless · 14 games
36%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Yuma · 12 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
[T]SA · 12 games
42%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Limitless · 11 games
64%

V-Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 34 games
68%
Lina
Linasignature
hAze · 24 games
63%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 24 games
79%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 22 games
73%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Malady · 19 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
hAze · 17 games
53%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 16 games
56%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
laise · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
313 picks · 174 bans
52%
Lina
Lina
280 picks · 537 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
276 picks · 404 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
274 picks · 100 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
263 picks · 372 bans
51%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
242 picks · 254 bans
59%
Luna
Luna
230 picks · 327 bans
50%
Abaddon
Abaddon
207 picks · 239 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 67%
Hero pool strength55% V-Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total65% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:37
B8 Esports 41%V-Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 1:04:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaWatson
50% · 117 games43% · 93 games
LunaTA2000
Luna
Lina
LinaDendi
51% · 184 games44% · 57 games
RazorhAze
Razor
Underlord
UnderlordLimitless
46% · 37 games55% · 156 games
Marslaise
Mars
Dark Willow
Dark Willow[T]SA
53% · 94 games52% · 31 game
Night StalkerMalady
Night Stalker
54% · 95 games
Shadow DemonArrOw
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed43:24
B8 Esports 41%V-Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 47:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeWatson
58% · 123 games50% · 134 games
LinahAze
Lina
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainDendi
57% · 46 games47% · 113 games
MorphlingTA2000
Morphling
Mars
MarsLimitless
47% · 258 games53% · 24 games
Vengeful Spiritlaise
Vengeful Spirit
Snapfire
Snapfire[T]SA
55% · 120 games42% · 125 games
ClockwerkArrOw
Clockwerk
44% · 151 game
AbaddonMalady
Abaddon
Game 3prediction correct19:31
B8 Esports 42%V-Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 42:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeWatson
56% · 122 games50% · 86 games
Phantom LancerTA2000
Phantom Lancer
Dark Seer
Dark SeerLimitless
49% · 66 games51% · 145 games
Timbersawlaise
Timbersaw
Mars
MarsDendi
48% · 289 games48% · 210 games
Void SpirithAze
Void Spirit
Tiny
Tiny[T]SA
52% · 123 games45% · 33 games
VenomancerMalady
Venomancer
49% · 126 games
Monkey KingArrOw
Monkey King
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 65%
Series resultV-Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3