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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Brameloss 0:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Khanwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Lina
Linaoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 11 games
55%
Axe
Axesignature
SkyLark · 10 games
60%
Lion
Lion
CTOMAHEH1 · 10 games
30%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
W1sh- · 10 games
40%
Tiny
Tiny
W1sh- · 10 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
SkyLark · 9 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
W1sh- · 9 games
44%

Khan

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
pJonn · 8 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
pJonn · 6 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
layme · 6 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
goddam · 6 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
pJonn · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Dodren · 6 games
83%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pJonn · 5 games
80%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
antoha · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
313 picks · 174 bans
52%
Lina
Lina
279 picks · 536 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
276 picks · 403 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
274 picks · 100 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
263 picks · 372 bans
51%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
241 picks · 254 bans
59%
Luna
Luna
230 picks · 327 bans
50%
Abaddon
Abaddon
207 picks · 239 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 52%
Hero pool strength54% Khan
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:30
Brame 53%Khan 47%
The model gave 53% on Brame — the game was taken by Khan in 37:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzNefrit
46% · 36 games47% · 106 games
Medusalayme
Medusa
Puck
PuckW1sh-
48% · 255 games49% · 36 games
BroodmotherpJonn
Broodmother
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSkyLark
62% · 90 games44% · 141 game
Earth SpiritDodren
Earth Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCTOMAHEH1
57% · 106 games49% · 151 game
Linagoddam
Lina
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiSsaSpartan
43% · 38 games47% · 91 game
Elder Titanantoha
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed12:30
Brame 52%Khan 48%
The model gave 52% on Brame — the game was taken by Khan in 35:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomSkyLark
52% · 57 games43% · 62 games
Svenlayme
Sven
Tidehunter
TidehunterNefrit
43% · 122 games52% · 61 game
BroodmotherpJonn
Broodmother
Leshrac
LeshracW1sh-
49% · 95 games50% · 169 games
TinyDodren
Tiny
Phoenix
PhoenixCTOMAHEH1
45% · 129 games53% · 196 games
Snapfiregoddam
Snapfire
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionSsaSpartan
60% · 129 games50% · 44 games
Omniknightantoha
Omniknight
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 56%
Series resultKhan 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2