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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Brameloss 0:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Winstrike Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Lina
Linaoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 16 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 11 games
55%
Axe
Axesignature
SkyLark · 10 games
60%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
W1sh- · 10 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
SkyLark · 9 games
56%
Lion
Lion
CTOMAHEH1 · 9 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
W1sh- · 9 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 8 games
88%

Winstrike Team

Lina
Linaoften banned
re1bl · 15 games
47%
Mars
Marssignature
chshrct · 15 games
60%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 14 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Panto · 13 games
38%
Lion
Lion
yamich · 13 games
38%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
yamich · 12 games
33%
Axe
Axeoften banned
chshrct · 11 games
18%
Puck
Puckoften banned
mellojul · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
312 picks · 174 bans
53%
Lina
Lina
278 picks · 534 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
274 picks · 100 bans
46%
Mars
Mars
274 picks · 399 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
263 picks · 371 bans
51%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
241 picks · 252 bans
59%
Luna
Luna
230 picks · 322 bans
50%
Abaddon
Abaddon
207 picks · 239 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Brame
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:29
Brame 50%Winstrike Team 50%
The model gave 50% on Brame — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 34:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNefrit
47% · 117 games46% · 120 games
Monkey Kingdyrachyo
Monkey King
Tiny
TinyW1sh-
50% · 120 games60% · 126 games
Beastmasterchshrct
Beastmaster
Tidehunter
TidehunterSkyLark
52% · 175 games51% · 140 games
Invokermellojul
Invoker
Lina
LinaCTOMAHEH1
48% · 167 games51% · 180 games
Miranayamich
Mirana
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSsaSpartan
39% · 67 games52% · 80 games
DisruptorPanto
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct17:28
Brame 50%Winstrike Team 50%
The model gave 50% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 34:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyNefrit
50% · 105 games45% · 36 games
Slarkdyrachyo
Slark
Pugna
PugnaW1sh-
42% · 8 games40% · 53 games
Lycanchshrct
Lycan
Magnus
MagnusSkyLark
49% · 52 games48% · 138 games
Void Spiritmellojul
Void Spirit
Lion
LionCTOMAHEH1
55% · 151 game56% · 121 game
Miranayamich
Mirana
Bane
BaneSsaSpartan
51% · 59 games57% · 27 games
Ogre MagiPanto
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 51%
Series resultWinstrike Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2